Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong Gross Margins in Networks Business: Ericsson reported high gross margins of 45% to 47% for its Networks business in Q3 guidance, which is comparable to historical peaks seen in 2021. The company is continuously working to improve these margins and anticipates a positive shift in product mix towards more software in the longer term, potentially enhancing profitability further.
- Robust IPR Licensing Revenue: Ericsson is on track to achieve its Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) revenue target of SEK 12 billion to SEK 13 billion for 2024, with a current run rate of around SEK 12 billion coming out of Q2. This strong performance underscores the value of Ericsson's technology leadership and patent portfolio. Analysts suggest the company may even exceed its guidance due to additional deals.
- Growth Opportunities in Network APIs and Global Network Platform: Ericsson is investing in the development of its Global Network Platform and network APIs, aiming to create new monetization models for 5G capabilities. This strategic focus is expected to open up new revenue streams for both Ericsson and telecom operators by leveraging network features like 3D positioning and speed on demand, thus driving future growth.
- Increased competition from Chinese vendors, particularly in Europe and Latin America, is putting pressure on Ericsson's market share and margins. Management acknowledges that Chinese competitors are "increasingly aggressive" and that they may lose some deals as a result. , ,
- The Vonage acquisition is underperforming, with write-downs exceeding SEK 4 billion and management admitting they "have not delivered on the current performance of the existing business". This raises concerns about Ericsson's ability to realize value from the acquisition and its impact on profitability. ,
- Operating expenses remain high despite lower revenues, leading to pressure on profitability. Management indicates that while cost-saving actions are being taken, the decrease in sales has impacted cost ratios, and investments in R&D and operational expenses continue despite the lower revenue base. ,
-
Margin Outlook
Q: Can gross margin improvement continue into Q4 and beyond?
A: Management is cautious about margins beyond Q3, acknowledging that while cost reductions are helping, they face a declining market. They guide a healthy network gross margin of 45% to 47% for Q3 but decline to provide guidance for Q4 or next year due to market uncertainties. -
Impact of Chinese Competition
Q: Are you losing share due to Chinese competitors?
A: Management notes increased aggression from Chinese vendors, making the market highly competitive. While they aim to protect gross margins by being disciplined in contract pursuits, they acknowledge that losing some market share is possible. Decisions are made based on managing overall gross profit rather than aggressively chasing share. -
IPR Licensing Guidance
Q: Will you raise the IPR revenue guidance?
A: Despite reaching a run rate of around SEK 12 billion and the possibility of additional deals, management maintains the IPR licensing revenue guidance at SEK 12 billion to SEK 13 billion for the full year. They focus on achieving the best economic outcomes in ongoing negotiations. -
U.S. Market Recovery
Q: Is the U.S. market recovery sustainable?
A: The U.S. market shows signs of normalization as customer inventories have depleted, leading to resumed purchases. While there's an uptick due to contracts like AT&T, visibility beyond that remains limited. Management remains cautiously optimistic but refrains from declaring a full market turnaround. -
Cost Reduction Actions
Q: Can you quantify the cost reduction efforts?
A: Cost reductions are broad-based across various markets and activities, including both enterprise and mobile networks. While not specifying amounts, management indicates that these efforts are crucial to adapt to the declining market and are offsetting factors like salary inflation and dedicated R&D investments. -
Vonage and Growth Plans
Q: When will Vonage achieve profitable growth?
A: Management is focused on improving Vonage's current business and returning to growth, particularly by exiting low-margin deals and enhancing operational efficiency. They emphasize the strategic importance of Vonage in developing network APIs and new market opportunities, acknowledging that while current performance needs improvement, long-term prospects remain a priority. -
Normalized Sales Levels in India and U.S.
Q: Are sales in India and U.S. at normal levels?
A: Sales in India are considered more normalized now following a rapid rollout phase that has tapered off. In the U.S., sales are at the lower end of a normal cycle, with expectations of eventual recovery as network capacity utilization increases and investments return to typical levels. -
Drivers of Q3 Gross Margin
Q: What drives the higher Q3 gross margin?
A: The anticipated gross margin improvement to 45%–47% in Q3 is driven by cost-out activities, positive geographical mix due to increased U.S. sales, and managed pricing strategies. Despite a declining market, these factors contribute to the margin outlook. -
Seasonality and AT&T Impact
Q: How does AT&T affect seasonality in revenue?
A: The contract with AT&T contributes to growth that aligns with normal seasonality patterns. While North America shows improvement, weaker conditions in other regions balance out the effect, leading management to view typical seasonality as a good indicator for Q3 performance. -
Accountability for Vonage Write-downs
Q: Who is accountable for Vonage's value loss?
A: The CEO takes full accountability for the write-downs related to Vonage. Management emphasizes that while the current business performance needs improvement, the strategic goal of creating a new market for network APIs remains a significant focus for future value creation.
Research analysts covering ERICSSON LM TELEPHONE.